Tom Webster's Netflix Warning Isn't Addressed to You. Read It Anyway.

Tom Webster of Sounds Profitable just dropped a data point that should make every podcaster sit up: Netflix is now the third most common place Americans encounter podcasts. Not Apple Podcasts. Netflix.

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Tom Webster's Netflix Warning Isn't Addressed to You. Read It Anyway.
Photo by Soundtrap / Unsplash

Tom's argument, laid out in a recent essay and a keynote at Podcast Movement, is sharp. Podcasting was built on the idea that anyone could publish and anyone could be found. Netflix breaks both halves of that promise. You can't upload your show there. Netflix picks the shows that were already winning, and it can drop them whenever the viewing numbers dip. Meanwhile, the apps built specifically for podcasts are losing ground, falling from 19% to 15% of listeners' main choice in a single year. Webster compares it to losing Tower Records: when the stores that celebrated music disappeared, the middle tier of artists faded with them.

It's a compelling case. But read it closely and notice who he's talking to.

This is a message for the people signing contracts

Webster runs a trade association with around 250 partners. His call to action is to talk with those partners about deals that pay well today but may weaken the medium tomorrow. He's urging networks and top shows not to trade podcasting's long-term health for a Netflix check.

That's a worthy goal. It's also a conversation most independent podcasters will never be part of. Nobody is calling you with a Netflix offer. You can't turn down a deal you were never going to be offered.

So what does his warning mean if you're one of the thousands of shows in the middle?

What indie podcasters should take from it

First, take the discovery problem seriously, because it hits you hardest. Webster's research shows that 77% of people who find podcasts on YouTube do it by searching for a specific show, topic, or host. That means being found by accident is getting rarer. If people won't stumble onto your show, you need to give them a reason to search for it. Clear titles, searchable topics, and a host name people remember matter more than ever.

Second, don't abandon the podcast apps. If the dedicated apps are where serendipity still happens, they're where smaller shows have the best shot. Encourage your listeners to follow you there, leave ratings, and share episodes from those apps.

Third, build on ground you control. Netflix can cancel a show for missing a viewing target. YouTube and Spotify can change their algorithms overnight. An email list, a community, or a direct relationship with your listeners can't be taken away by a platform decision.

The bottom line

Webster is right that the industry's biggest players are making choices that will shape what podcasting looks like for everyone. Indie creators can't control those deals. What they can control is how findable they are and how directly connected they stay to their audience. His warning is aimed at the boardroom, but the smartest response will come from everyone else.

— Seth Goldstein

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